Discount levels in electronics for instance, will peak at 22 percent for the season, down from 27 percent in 2020. “Limited product availability, higher prices, and concerns about shipping delays will drive another surge towards e-commerce, as it provides more flexibility in how and when consumers choose to shop.” Insights on discounts, as well as the best days to shop:Ĭategory Discounts: Adobe expects smaller discounts in all major gifting categories tracked by the Digital Economy Index. ![]() “We are entering a second holiday season where the pandemic will dictate the terms,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights, Adobe. E-commerce prices have not risen as quickly as offline prices however, with the latest Consumer Price Index up 5.4 percent YoY (Sept 2021). In past years, online prices were down 5 percent YoY on average prior to the shopping season. This is happening as pricing levels have been elevated: Inflation in e-commerce has been observed since June 2020 (16 consecutive months) with online prices up 3.3 percent going into the holiday season (Sept 2021). Adobe forecasts discounts will be in the 5 percent to 25 percent range across categories this season, compared to a historical average of 10 percent to 30 percent. This is the result of smaller discounts, on top of e-commerce inflation that has persisted through the year. consumers will pay 9 percent more on average during Cyber Week this year, compared to the last holiday season. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, apparel has the highest out-of-stock levels currently, followed by sporting goods, baby products, and electronics.Ī weakened supply chain is also driving up prices online. Adobe expects it to remain at this level, increasing for certain products throughout the season. Shoppers are feeling the impact: Compared to a pre-pandemic period (Jan 2020), the prevalence of out-of-stock messages has risen a whopping 172 percent going into the holiday season. Surging consumer demand for online shopping is happening as retailers contend with dire supply chain challenges, from crowded ports and cargo delays to disruptions in overseas manufacturing. Supply chain challenges to impact shopping season All three major shopping days are growing less than the season overall. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to drive $11.3 billion (up 4 percent YoY) and remain the biggest day of the season (and year), with Black Friday coming in at $9.5 billion (up 5 percent YoY) and Thanksgiving at $5.4 billion (up 6 percent YoY). ![]() The growth is slowing however, coming in at just 5 percent YoY for the 5-day period (less than the season overall at 10 percent YoY). Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $36 billion in online spending - 17 percent of the entire holiday season. In the U.S., as e-commerce becomes more ubiquitous, the major shopping days are losing prominence. Adobe expects over $4 Trillion ($4.1T) to be spent globally in all of 2021 - a new milestone for e-commerce. Globally, online spending is expected to hit $910 billion this season, 11 percent growth year-over-year (YoY). This represents a 10 percent increase from 2020, a strong growth rate after a year where the pandemic made e-commerce an essential service. holiday sales online to hit $207 billion from Nov. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories, with global views based on transactions in over 100 countries across three regions - more than any other technology company or research organization.Īdobe expects U.S. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis covers over one trillion visits to U.S. and global e-commerce by analyzing direct consumer transactions online. As part of the Adobe Digital Economy Index, Adobe provides a comprehensive view into U.S. Today Adobe released its online shopping forecast for the 2021 holiday season (Nov. ![]()
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